The surplus of the trade balance of goods will double between 2024 and 2030, amounting to almost USD41,800 million, according to projections created by the BCRA based on sectorial reports on the dynamics of foreign trade in the coming years. This projection indicates that the surplus in the trade balance of goods will go from representing 3.9% of GDP in 2024 to 5.2% in 2030.
Argentina’s total exports will reach almost USD144,000 million in 2030, according to these projections, with fuel posting outstanding growth and, specifically, unconventional crude oil having a strong performance in the coming years. The new transport infrastructure will help to substitute imports and to develop export potential. Thus, total fuel exports will increase from USD10,400 million in 2024 to USD36,700 million in 2030.
Mining will also contribute to this growth process. Thanks to the lithium, gold and silver mining projects, total mining exports will increase from USD6,100 million in 2024 to USD15,600 million in 2030.
The agricultural sector will return to its usual level, which is around USD35,400 million, once the effects of the drought have been overcome, and exhibits possibilities of growth in the coming years.
The rest of the exports of goods, boosted by the “Productive Argentina 2023” plan, will increase from USD37,700 million to USD54,500 million between 2024 and 2030. The automobile and petrochemical sectors will contribute the most to this growth of exports.
In addition, it is expected that the infrastructure projects already in progress and planned for the energy sector will substitute imports, especially gas. Thus, foreign purchases of fuel will be gradually reduced over the years.
The rest of the imports of goods will increase, driven by a yearly average growth in GDP of 4.6%. Total imports of goods will reach about USD102,000 million, following an upward trend in terms of GDP—to 12.6% against 10.4% (pre-pandemic figure)
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July 19, 2023